New York hopes to snap losing skid at Dallas

Soccer Betting Lines

07/03/2009 - Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Red Bull New York ends a tough seven-match streak Saturday night at FC Dallas, hoping to snap a nine-game winless skid and a road losing stretch that dates back to last season.

New York (2-12-4) contests its sixth road match in its last seven games against Dallas, and with an 0-9-1 record away from Giants Stadium this season - and 22 straight regular season road losses - could still struggle again in a clash vs. another one of the worst teams in MLS.

FC Dallas (3-7-5) has lost just once in its last seven games, but are still in need of more points as it tries to overcome a poor start to the season. Dallas has just four more points than New York.

New York hasn't won since May 8, and has scored just one goal - while allowing 17 - on the road this season.

"Certainly you read it and go, Holy cow," New York's Seth Stammler said about the road losing streak. "We treat road games with the same importance as home games so it's not like we're doing something strategically to let that happen."

The Red Bulls lost to the Columbus Crew last week, 1-0, in a rematch of the MLS Cup. Crew defender Chad Marshall scored the only goal late in the first half. New York has allowed a league-high nine goals in the last 15 minutes of a half.

"If it happened once it wouldn't be that big a deal but we've been talking about it for the last couple of weeks because we continue to do it," Stammler said. "That's how it's been the last two months. Stupid mistakes defensively and we give up goals and then we're not converting our chances. We've got to step up and take care of our responsibilities."

New York was without forward and leading scorer Juan Pablo Angel last week, as well as defender Kevin Goldwaithe. Forward Macoumba Kandji and Dane Richards were on the bench, but neither played.

Goldthwaite is ruled out this week, along with fellow defender Carlos Mendes. Angel and Kandji are questionable, and Richards and Alfredo Pacheco are playing in the Gold Cup for Jamaica and El Salvador, respectively.

The Red Bulls acquired veteran MLS goalie Bouna Coundoul earlier this week - and released Jon Conway - and hope he can make a difference in the back.

"With our past experiences it seems players come to this club and it takes a little more if not much more to play here," New York coach Juan Carlos Osorio said. "But, hopefully Bouna can sustain what is needed to play for the Red Bulls and hopefully he will do well."

If New York can snap its road woes this weekend, it plays six of its next seven at home, starting on July 16 when Los Angeles Galaxy midfielder David Beckham returns to MLS from his loan deal with Italy's AC Milan.

Dallas is coming off a 1-1 draw with the Colorado Rapids, but is also dealing with injuries and losses to the Gold Cup.

Most notably, striker Kenny Cooper and his team-high seven goals will be with the U.S., and coach Schellas Hyndman is still not positive what changes he will make.

"It really does [leave] not only an offensive void for everything Kenny brings plus the experience," Hyndman said.

Second-year forward Brek Shea, who has one assist in seven games, could replace Cooper in the lineup, or Hyndman could turn to veteran Jeff Cunningham.

"I think [Shea] is ready [to play a full 90] but whether he will or he won't, we don't know," Hyndman said.

Defenders Steve Purdy and Daniel Torres, and midfielders Alvaro Sanchez and Marcelo Saragosa are out this week, and Ray Burse will make his 10th straight start in place of usual No. 1 goalie Dario Sala - who is still recovering from a knee injury.

"He started a little shaky in the first four or five games," Sala said of Burse. "Then, he made a transition. He started to do better in Houston when we lost 1-0 there. And from there, he picked it up and has been doing well."

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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