Spain grabs 2-1 Davis Cup final lead against host Argentina

Tennis Betting Lines

11/22/2008 - Mar del Plata, Argentina (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In Saturday's pivotal doubles rubber, a tandem of lefthanders Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco topped a duo of Agustin Calleri and David Nalbandian in four sets to give visiting Spain a 2-1 lead over Argentina in their best-of-five Davis Cup final at Estadio Islas Malvinas.

Lopez and Verdasco dropped the first set on Day 2 before fighting back for a 5-7, 7-5, 7-6 (7-5), 6-3 decision over Calleri and Nalbandian on the indoor hardcourt here in Mar del Plata. Argentine captain Alberto Mancini removed Jose Acasuso from the doubles bout and replaced him with Nalbandian, who was a singles winner here on Friday.

Spain now needs to win just one of Sunday's two reverse singles rubbers to secure its third Davis Cup title this decade, while the Argentines need to sweep the Day-3 singles in order to secure that elusive first-ever Davis Cup championship.

On Saturday, the Spaniards dropped a tough first set against Calleri and Nalbandian, but fought back to take the second and level the rubber.

In a most interesting third set, Spain jumped out to a seemingly-commanding 5-1 lead only to see the Argentines charge all the way back to forge a 5-5 tie and ultimately force a tiebreak.

In the tiebreak, it was team Argentina that let things slip away, as Calleri- Nalbandian blew a 5-1 lead, as the Spaniards rattled off six straight points to stun the hosts and grab a two-sets-to-one lead.

The fourth and deciding set was never in doubt for Spain, as the visitors roared out to a 5-2 advantage and held on to secure the crucial second point.

Lopez and Verdasco needed 3 hours, 18 minutes to prevail, which they did with the help of six service breaks and 12 aces. The losers settled for four breaks and 10 aces.

Sunday's singles call for Spain's David Ferrer to take on 20-year-old rising Argentine star Juan Martin del Potro and Lopez to encounter the former Wimbledon runner-up and former Tennis Masters Cup champion Nalbandian. The world No. 9 del Potro, No. 11 Nalbandian and No. 12 Ferrer account for three of the top-12 players on the planet. Lopez is ranked 31st.

On Friday here, Nalbandian spanked Ferrer 6-3, 6-2, 6-3 in the opening singles rubber and Lopez then pulled Spain even with a 4-6, 7-6 (7-2), 7-6 (7-4), 6-3 stunner over del Potro.

The Spaniards, captained by Emilio Sanchez, also have Davis Cup rookie Marcel Granollers at their disposal on Sunday. Granollers joined the squad last week when world No. 1 superstar Rafael Nadal announced his withdrawal, citing a knee injury. The amazing Nadal is the reigning Wimbledon, French Open and Olympic champ.

The gritty Spaniards own a pair of Davis Cup championships, with both coming this decade -- in 2000 and 2004. Argentina was the runner-up just two years ago and also back in 1981.

Spain is 2-0 all-time versus Argentina, which is hosting for the first time ever in this series. The Spaniards prevailed at home way back in 1926 and again in 2003.

The Spaniards, who are 2-3 in their all-time Davis Cup finals and appearing in their fourth final this decade, reached this year's final by beating the 32-time and defending champion United States 4-1 in a semifinal in Madrid, while Argentina got past Russia 3-2 in Buenos Aires, with del Potro winning a fifth and deciding rubber.

The Argentines have won 13 straight Davis Cup ties as the host.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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